Thursday, August 25, 2011

2006 Draft Revisited - Picks #21-30

Its always fun to look back. Today, we'll start our look back at the 1st round (Top 30 picks) of the 2006 June Amateur draft. Its fun for us but for some general managers, the look back can be painful. Today, we'll start with picks #21-30. From Ian Kennedy to Adam Ottavino, I'll give each team a PASS or a FAIL for each pick. Its purely subjective and based on statistical performance since I'm not a scout. I'll base my analysis on how far a draft pick has come and whether he'll be a long-term contributor for the Major League team which, in my opinion, is what your first rounder should do:

#30. Adam Ottavino STL - Ottavino, 25, has amassed a record of 36-43 with an ERA of 4.32 in 6 minor league seasons. He holds a WHIP around 1.47 and strikes out almost 8 batters 9 innings and though he breezed through 2006 and 2007 at A-,A and A+, he's found it a lot tougher at the AA level. Ottavino has struggled with control, walking more than 4.2 batters per 9 innings but he's always been able to strike out a few and keep his hits against down. The Cardinals thought enough of him to call him up in May of 2010 but after 3 starts and 5 appearances and an 8.46 era, it was evident that he wasn't ready for the big time. His 2011 hasn't gone much better as he continues to walk batters and the hits against have also risen. Ottavino was on the Italian roster for the 2009 World Baseball Classic. FAIL

#29. Kyle McCulloch CHW - After 6 years in the Minors, including parts of 5 at AA, McCulloch looks to be stalled. He's now with the Reds but he's still maintaining a WHIP of 1.49 and is allowing way too many hits and striking out way too few batters. McCulloch keeps the ball in the park and his control is decent but except for a partial season at rookie ball in 2006, he hasn't wowed anybody. FAIL

#28. Daniel Bard BOS - The Red Sox did, however, strike gold with Bard, who played his college ball at North Carolina. Bard struggled terribly out of the gate as a starter but he quickly found his groove in 2008 as a reliever, putting up tremendous numbers at A,AA and AAA. In 93 innings during that span, he allowed 48 hits and struck out 136. At the Major League level, Bard has been tremendous , allowing less than 6 hits per 9 innings and striking out almost 10. He walks a few but his WHIP is still barely above 1. PASS

#27. Jason Place BOS - Though he showed a little bit of power in 2008 at high-A, Place has struggled to regain a power stroke and he strikes out way too much. He doesn't hit for average and though he's still active in 2011, I would say its by the skin of his teeth and the laurels of being a first round pick. He's currently with the Yankees AA team at Trenton. 49 career homers in 1719 at bats but a .230 average and 695 OPS means... FAIL

#26. Bryan Morris LAD - Though drafted by the Dodgers, Morris has since moved to the Pirates as part of a big 3-way trade in 2008 that involved Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Morris missed the 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery and is currently at AA for Pittsburgh and hasn't quite made his case for a trip to the majors let alone AAA. He is a power pitcher who still has some upside and he's now in the bullpen at Altoona despite starting 79 minor league games so far. A 3.92era and a 1.42whip is what he has to offer so far. FAIL

#25. Hank Conger LAA - Conger is a good hitting catcher who found himself in the majors last season at the age of 22. He's been up and down in 2011 but with 52 minor league homers and a .298 batting average and 827 OPS, the Angels believe he's ready to be the catcher of the present. He gets on base, doesn't strike out much and is decent enough on defense. But a bat behind the plate that can hit .300 with some power and some patience can be moved to DH or 1B. PASS

#24. Cody Johnson ATL - A power hitter who strikes out 40% of the time, Johnson has hit 114 homers thus far in his 6 minor league seasons yet he is still at AA, on his second organization. As he moves up the ranks, his strikeouts are actually increasing as well, with 174 in just 376 at bats. He's still hitting the long ball with the Yankees AA affiliate (he has 15) but those strikeouts are just...just...frightening. He's only batting .226 and has still not faced AAA pitching so I'd peg him as a longshot at this point. FAIL

#23. Maxwell Sapp HOU - Sapp's minor league career stalled in 2008 after suffering from Meningitis and he found himself in a coma for 18 days in December. The Astros kept an eye on him in 2009 but they released him in 2010, much to his dismay. Its a sad story for any player let alone a 1st round pick but it wasn't like his minor league numbers had the catcher's trajectory leading him to the bigs. He was not a productive hitter, finishing his career with an OPS of only 622. FAIL

#22. Colton Willems WAS - The former high-school all-american hung up the cleats in 2010 after just four minor league seasons. He showed promise in his first 3 seasons but he fell apart in 2009 and never quite got it together. FAIL

#21. Ian Kennedy NYY - The 26 year-old has already won 15 games in 2011 with the Diamondbacks and he has 70 major league starts under his belt. He dominated in the minors (19-6 1.95era 0.99whip ~10k/9). He walks few, strikes out enough and is tough to hit and he's propelled the D-Backs to 1st place in the NL West along with Justin Upton. Kennedy has turned into an ace and he's on his way to a large multi-year contract. The Yankees used him to get Curtis Granderson so its been a success for both the Yankees and Diamondbacks. PASS

 #11-20 coming soon.

No comments: